* Inorganic thin-film PV technologies will mature over the next five years, as new producers follow in the footsteps of thin-film specialist and current market darling, First Solar. Inorganic thin-film PV will erode crystalline silicon PV's current dominant market share, grabbing 28 percent of the solar market in 2012 with $19.7 billion in sales.

* High-concentrating PV systems, using high-efficiency but high-cost multi-junction PV cells, will disappoint through 2009, as system complexity, limited robustness in harsh deployment environments, and the need for great precision dashes the hopes of developers for a smooth, rapid ramp. While products will become mature enough for deployment thereafter, installations using multi-junction PV will reach just $1.23 billion in 2012.

* Solar thermal technologies (also known as concentrating solar power, or CSP), like those used at the 64 MW Nevada Solar One power plant that began operations last July, will begin to make an impact on the utility market for solar power. They will, however, face an uphill adoption battle because of limited power distribution infrastructure and the beginnings of regulatory aversion towards large-scale solar installations. By 2012, new annual solar thermal installations will reach 3.26 GW, accounting for $9.34 billion in revenue.

* Organic and Grätzel PV technologies, which promise much lower costs than any other approach, as well as the possibility of extremely flexible, and even wearable, solar cells, won’t mature in the next five years. Beyond 2012, however, these technologies are likely to have a major impact, albeit in unexpected applications.

* By 2012, cost reductions will bring solar to peak power grid parity in some places, for instance, in countries with high insolation and growing low-cost domestic production, like India.

The Lux Research analysis found important implications for start-up companies with disruptive technologies targeting the solar industry. “As roughly 100 thin-film developers race to market over the next few years, we expect most of them to fall by the wayside as technology hurdles overcome them, which will especially be the case for novel CIGS producers,” said Ted Sullivan, Senior Analyst at Lux Research.

“The remaining thin-film developers with viable technology will be snapped up by incumbent players eager to insert themselves into the growing new segment, as CIGS developer, Global Solar, has been by Solon. Investors and market watchers should expect to see only one or two ‘home-run’ plays, similar to First Solar, coming out of the impending thin-film ramp.”