SARATOGA, USA: Sales ($ billings) of Worldwide Wafer Processing Equipment in 2007 were 13 percent above the same period in 2006, based on the first 11 months of 2007. Since equipment bookings have been deteriorating continuously, it is likely that the final growth number for 2007 will be close to 10 percent.

In December 2006, Advanced Forecasting Inc. informed its users that 2007 would bring 8.9 percent growth in comparison to 2006.  At that time, the company’s forecast was twice as high as that of the most optimistic forecaster speaking at the 2007 ISS, where forecasts ranged from 0.6 percent to 5 percent.

Dr. Moshe Handelsman, founder of Advanced Forecasting, warned that decision-makers should be cautious if relying on some of the optimistic 2008 forecasts that have been circulating the industry recently.

He said: “Forecasting models that are not purely quantitative have a terrible track record for predicting Turning-Points. Any time you incorporate opinions in a forecast, you introduce extrapolations. Extrapolation can not predict a change in direction.”