Semicon Outlook 09 - I: What analysts forecast!

Global Semiconductor Industry

Semicon Outlook 09 - I: What analysts' forecast!

Nearly all have painted a dismal 2009, barring, one, which has actually advised companies to think quarterly, if they hope for recovery

Pradeep Chakraborty

Monday, December 22, 2008

BANGALORE, INDIA: The last month of this year has seen plenty of forecasts made by various analysts regarding the global semiconductor industry. Nearly everyone has painted a dismal 2009, barring, IC Insights, which has actually advised that if companies can think quarterly, there could be some recovery in sight!

EMS is another area, which should grow, albeit at a slower pace, in 2009.

It is going to be a long haul for memory.while fab spends are surely put on hold or cut back. In fact, spending on fabs equipping in 2009 is likely to reach lowest levels since 2003!

We are presenting here a collection of the various forecasts made by the analyst community.

Semiconductor industry forecasts:

IC Insights: 2009: Recovery year for IC industry, global economy?
Absolutely, if you think Quarterly! This is the advice from IC Insights.

iSuppli: Broad downturn likely for semicon in 2009
However, iSuppli is projecting the semiconductor industry will recover to grow by 6.4 percent in 2010!

Gartner: Semicon capital equipment spend to drop 32pc in 2009
Global semiconductor capital equipment spending likely to decline 30.6 percent in 2008 and total $31.1 billion, as against Gartner October forecast of 25.2 percent decline.

SEMI: Semicon equipment sales to fall to $30.91bn in 2008
SEMI announces year-end forecast for chip equipment industry.

KPMG LLP: Volatile outlook for semicon revenue growth in 09
Expect sharp decline in profitability, KPMG Study finds; R&D and capex spending seen tumbling, and significant workforce contraction is expected.

iSuppli: Red alert for global semicon inventories
Excess stockpiles to cut chip industry growth, delay industry recovery, says iSuppli.

Gartner: Global semicon revenue to drop 16.3pc in 2009
Gartner says in 2009, the semiconductor industry will experience consecutive years of declining revenue for the first time in its history.

iSuppli: Forgettable year for memory chip makers
iSuppli releases preliminary 2008 semiconductor rankings.

SEMI: Fab construction spending to drop by 41pc
World Fab Forecast shows capacity growth at lowest levels since 2002.

DRAM:

DRAMeXchange: Taiwan DRAM output may top world with moderate govt. aid
Taiwanese government also announced premises of bail out plan are consolidation of DRAM industry and developing own technology

Converge: 2008 perhaps worst year for DRAM market
DRAM manufacturers need a plan to reduce production and need to stick to it to truly affect the market

EMS:

IDC: Global EMS will continue to grow in 2009, but slower!
In 2009, IDC expects global EMS industry to grow by 7.8 percent, assuming demand for electronics does not fall farther than expected.

Chips/Processors

iSuppli: Receding eco tide lowers system-level chips expectations
Revenue from core silicon ICs is set to suffer a weak finish to 2008, and decline by nearly a double-digit percentage in 2009

Converge: Demand for mid-level processors shrinking
Converge Market Insights reflects back on past year and look forward to what 2009 markets may bring for the microprocessor market

We sincerely hope that this collection will help you plan much better for 2009!

In a forthcoming special, we will look at all of our own forecasts close up!

©CIOL Bureau