Generation shift likely to DDR3

DDR3

Generation shift likely to DDR3

DRAMeXchange expects more PC OEM makers to launch products containing DDR3 by end of this year

Wednesday, October 08, 2008

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TAIPEI, TAIWAN: To DRAM industry, 2007 and 2008 are absolutely considered the down years. Over expansion by the DRAM makers resulted in an over-supplied market where DDR2 die price fell sharply. With the expectation of lower PC sales in Q4, DRAM inventory is expected to continue its climb and DRAM price is expected to break new lows.

Up to this point, DDR2 1Gb eTT spot price is now at 1.15 USD and DDR2 667 1Gb is down to 1.19 USD. Even though DDR2 price is already below its variable cost, for DRAM makers, developing DDR3 remains the key factor to winning the next war.

From current product roadmaps, the only DDR3 manufacturers who continue to be the primary DRAM makers are Samsung, Hynix, and Elpida. Of the Taiwanese DRAM makers, only Nanya has begun manufacturing DDR3 dies.

From the production scales, Samsung and Elpida are the most aggressive in ramping up DDR3 production. DRAMeXchange estimates Samsung and Elpida will have nearly 10 percent of their production capacity focused on DDR3 production. In addition, with advancement in process, DDR3 dies will begin to be produced with 70nm, 65nms or even 56nm process beginning the second half of this year and will officially begin mass production in these advance process sometime in 2009.

Given the increased willingness to adopt DDR3 among the PC OEM makers, it is possible for DDR3 to reach a large enough economy of scale and to begin a generation shift from DDR2 to DDR3

According to DRAMeXchange figures, DDR3 dies will make up roughly 4 percent of total DRAM die produced by the end of this year. Although the proportion is small, DRAM makers have been very persuasive in convincing PC OEM makers to adopt DDR3.

Besides promising a steady supply of DDR3 dies, DRAM makers have offered extremely attractive prices to lower the price barrier between DDR2 and DDR3 memory modules for those PC makers who are willing to adopt DDR3. Thus, in NB market, we have begun to see new product launches featuring DDR3 from branded PC makers such as Dell, Sony, Lenovo, Toshiba, Acer, etc.

DRAMeXchange expects more PC OEM makers to launch products containing DDR3 by end of this year and expects DDR3 to be part of 20-30 percent of all PC market.

Source: DRAMeXchange

©CIOL Bureau

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