CANADA: Findings from the Semicast study "Automotive Market for Semiconductors" suggest steady revenue growth for automotive semiconductors to 2015. The global market for automotive semiconductors is forecast to grow from $20 billion last year to just over $30 billion in 2015.

With total 2007 semiconductor revenues of around $255 billion, this suggest the automotive sector accounts for between 7-8 percent of the TAM (total available market). Continued semiconductor demand is forecast in each of the main areas of the vehicle, as electronics increasingly pervades the main systems. Accordingly, average semiconductor content per new light vehicle is forecast to grow steadily from around $295 in 2007 to $375 in 2015.
 
Overall, highest growth is forecast for semiconductors used in entertainment systems, such as audio, infotainment, navigation and telematics. Here, demand is forecast to grow from $4 billion last year to $7.5 billion in 2015, a CAGR of almost 9 percent.

The evolution of the entertainment system from audio to infotainment to navigation is the key growth driver in this segment, while increased shipments of rear seat entertainment (RSE) systems, satellite radio and telematics (such as OnStar) will also drive growth.

Although most hype and attention is often paid to trends in the entertainment segment, one of the key conclusions that can be drawn from the study findings is that highest semiconductor demand will continue in conventional "under-the-hood" systems.

Analysis shows that revenues for semiconductors in “under-the-hood” systems accounted for around 80 percent of the total in 2007 and this is forecast to decline only moderately over the period to 2015, to around 75 percent. Report author and principal analyst, Colin Barnden, commented, "From a revenue perspective, semiconductor suppliers should not overlook opportunities offered in the conventional but somewhat less glamorous systems." 

Growth opportunities in "under-the-hood" systems include:
Body and Chassis: Exterior solid state lighting is one of the key applications for growth, as vehicle makers change from using conventional filament bulbs to LED lighting. Opportunities in door electronics and air conditioning should not be overlooked for steady growth, while parking assist systems (both ultrasonic and camera based) are now gaining rapid adoption.

Powertrain: Continued advancements in engine control systems to reduce tailpipe emissions and fuel consumption continues to be the key growth driver. With emissions regulations continuing to become more stringent around the world, this trend will provide steady growth for semiconductor vendors in powertrain applications for at least the next 20 years.

Safety: Driver assistance systems such as lane departure warning and blind spot detection offer high growth opportunities in the longer term, while electronic stability control (ESC), intelligent airbags and tire pressure warning systems are all seeing growth as a result of changes in legislation making adoption compulsory in regional markets around the world.

Key conclusions:

* Total OE system production volumes in the automotive sector are forecast to rise from 890 million in 2007 to 1.5 billion in 2015.
* Highest volume OE applications are door electronics, solid state lighting and engine control.
* OE semiconductor consumption in the automotive sector is forecast to grow from $20 billion in 2007 to over $30 billion in 2015. Revenue growth is forecast to be highest in the OE entertainment sector, followed by body & chassis and safety systems.
* China is forecast to be by far the fastest growing region for automotive semiconductors over the period to 2015, at a CAGR of almost 20 percent.
* Highest demand is forecast for analog ICs (predominantly application specific analog), followed by MCU/MPU/DSP.
* Fastest growth is forecast for memory ICs.
* Freescale, Infineon Technologies, STMicroelectronics, NXP and Renesas are estimated to have been the top five suppliers of OE automotive semiconductors in 2007.
* Revenues for automotive aftermarket semiconductors are forecast to grow from over $2 billion in 2007 to almost $4 billion in 2015.

Detials of the report -- Automotive Market for Semiconductors - 2008 Edition -- can be found on Electronics.ca publications' Web site.