UK: The upwards view of netbooks starts with netbooks and looks up to laptops. It leads to two conclusions.

First, the laptop market is becoming increasingly complex, with market segments catered for by a growing variety of low-cost netbooks and laptops. Second, after a strong start, Linux netbooks have now been overtaken by Windows netbooks and Linux is lagging increasingly behind in terms of sales, although Linux’s performance in the netbook segment is still outstanding compared to its overall performance in the desktop market.

Downwards view: appliance opportunities for Linux
The top-down view of netbooks starts with netbooks and looks up to smartphones. The two types of device belong to the same mobile Internet device (MID), a term coined by Intel, owing to their Internet browsing/multimedia processing capabilities. Besides netbooks (where the MID and laptop markets overlap) and smartphones (where the MID and telephony markets overlap), Linux could make it as an operating system (OS) for handheld Internet appliances (e.g. Apple’s iPod Touch) by building on its strength as a phone OS and on its potential as sub-$200 netbook OS.

Back-to-basics $200 netbook to appear later on in 2009
A new generation of lower priced but less comfortable/capable netbooks will emerge later this year. At $200 or less, they will cost about half the price of current netbooks. Both hardware platform manufacturers and device manufacturers (such as Freescale Semiconductor and Asus) are keen to develop them.

Android to the rescue
Linux vendors should focus on the netbook as an appliance and on specialised distributions, especially Android (which is currently focused on smartphones). These are more likely than generic distributions like Ubuntu to make it in the netbook appliance/MID space. Both Freescale Semiconductor and Asus unveiled Android netbook plans in February 2009, and more will follow.

Internet-connected applications (and related online stores) are key to the success of the netbook appliance/MID. From that perspective, Android benefits from increasing support from developers/ISVs. Google strengthened its position with the February 2009 announcement that it will now allow developers to charge for applications on Android Market. The success of Android could even lead Android’s Java-based Dalvik runtime to be ported to other platforms such as Symbian and Windows Mobile.

The author is Ovum Open Source Research Director.