OREGON, US: It ain’t over till the fat lady sings. And in boxing battles, it ain’t over till the bell rings. There is no sign of this bell ringing for UNIX if Dan Olds, Principal Analyst, Gabriel Consulting Group says it right. But listening to Dan’s sharp and cogent arguments leaves not much room for doubt. For this exceptionally sharp, brutally-cogent and seasoned industry-watcher or analyst extraordinaire, not only is betting big on the rugged son-of-the-soil Rocky Balboa of the enterprise rings, but he can also dig out some subtle yet impressive layers of reasons that surprisingly go in favour of someone whom most have written off already.

So yes, some new beans as counted by Gabriel Consulting in a freshly brewed survey are steaming hot for UNIX, but it still takes Dan’s strong sensory powers to tell us just why rustic brawn is still far from the so-predicted sunset days, no matter how many new-generation challengers like LINUX or x86 stand up against the old champ. The match is not yet over. Industry can still watch some thrilling moments of pugilism. And as always, there will be blood. Dan helps us see where.

Your survey throws up new energy levels for UNIX. What makes UNIX still contemporary amongst views that it drove into sunset with the advent of LINUX, x86 and Windows OS etc? If yes, which genre has the most potential in the new era - Mac OS X Leopard/ IBM's z/OS/Solaris/HP-UX?

UNIX is still around because it has changed roles in the enterprise. As less expensive x86 alternatives (Linux, Windows) advanced from the bottom of the market moving upwards (starting with file/print servers, for example), UNIX systems have steadily added enterprise features that the x86 systems can’t match. These include vertical scalability (scaling a single application to many processors/cores), along with higher availability/reliability and advanced virtualization. At the same time, prices for UNIX capacity have come down as well. The modern commercial UNIX system has moved into the role of mission-critical infrastructure server.

So, who will grow at whose cost?

I think that the major operating systems will continue to survive, but the bulk of the growth will go towards Windows and Linux – which is natural, given that they are lower cost alternatives. I believe that commercial UNIX systems will continue to grow in terms of usage (bigger and more capable systems being shipped), albeit at a much slower rate. The mainframe will continue along, much as it has, primarily selling into their installed base.

UNIX is definitely facing some heavy challenges in a torrent of new alternatives? How many of these can be attributed to slower release cycles, UNIX wars, slow evolution of standards, latency issues, portability issues, flexibility, skills shortage, costs, server consolidation issues etc? Which ones do you opine as the big punches to focus on?

The key challenges for commercial UNIX vendors are two-pronged. First, proving (not just talking about) the value of their platform vs. x86 alternatives. They need to talk about throughput and workloads vs. what can be generated by other systems. They also need to discuss costs, and put forward a case showing that the higher acquisition cost of UNIX systems is more than counterbalanced by, for example, lower management costs, higher throughput, higher utilization rates, or higher availability.

Secondly, I think that anyone who knows Linux would feel fairly comfortable with commercial UNIX these days. This is something that the UNIX vendors need to explore and discuss with prospective customers.

How would you assess its relevance for mission critical apps or heavy workloads in coming years? For enterprises overhauling legacy systems in a major way? Do you see more migrations in imminent future?