USA: Driven by the weak economy, more companies are forced to postpone fab projects. This year is expected to show negative double digits for money spent on fab construction and fabs equipping. Next year, however, positive double digit growth rates are expected. Foundries, rather than memory, show more activity this year in terms of fabs beginning construction and production.

Spending on fabs equipping
After about 12 percent growth in 2007, money spent on fabs equipping in 2008 will decline 16.5 percent in 2008, followed by over 12 percent growth in 2009.

SE Asia and Taiwan show this trend most dramatically, shifting from negative growth of 40 percent and 33 percent, respectively, in 2008, to positive growth of over 50 percent and 80 percent, respectively, in 2009. In the Americas, however, there is no such good news, as fab equipment spending will drop 9 percent in 2008 and another 33 percent in 2009.

China and Europe/Mideast show positive growth rates in both years, although both will slip from double-digit growth in 2008 to single-digit growth in 2009. Spending in Japan and South Korea will remain slow, but improve from negative double digits in 2008 to only negative single digits in 2009.

The big three spenders in 2008 for fabs equipping are Samsung, Flash Alliance and Intel.

While most US companies are investing in fab opportunities outside the country, Samsung is pouring money into their 300mm Megafab in Austin, Texas. Samsung is also spending on an even larger fab, Line 15 in Hwasung, South Korea. Intel is investing in its Fab 28 in Israel, Fab 32 in Arizona and Fab 11X in New Mexico. Flash Alliance is the star with the largest Flash-dedicated fab in the world, Fab 4 in Japan.

In 2009, Rexchip, TSMC, UMC, Promos and Hynix are projected to make their comebacks, joining Samsung, Flash Alliance and Intel as key spenders.

Spending on fab construction projects
Money spent on fab construction projects shows a 26 percent decline in 2008 (from about +10 percent in 2007), but is projected to increase to over +50 percent in 2009.

Comparing regions for new fab construction, only SE Asia and S. Korea show positive growth in 2008. It is a big year for SE Asia, with over 160 percent growth in funds spent on fab construction projects. This is mainly due to IM Flash’s ambitious plan for an estimated $6 billion Megafab in Singapore.

Growth rates for Taiwan’s spending on fab construction show a slight contraction in 2008, but Taiwan is still the region expected to spend the most money on construction in 2008 and 2009. In 2008, Taiwan’s biggest spenders for fab construction projects are Rexchip, Powerchip, TSMC and MeiYa.

In 2009, TSMC takes the lead in Taiwan, followed by Powerchip, Promos and Inotera. In 2009, China will be the second largest spending region. The main contributors for this are Hynix-Numonyx JV in Wuxi, Elpida-He Jian JV (HEFA) in Jiangsu and SMIC in Shenzhen and Chengdu.